Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf resigns or as The Economist put it “he jumps before he is pushed.” Ending days of speculation whether he will resign or face an impeachment Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf officially announced his resignation on Monday, August 18th 2008. In an hour long TV address President Musharraf announced his resignation from the government and said “Good-bye Pakistan,”(Khuda Hafiz Pakistan) at the end of his speech, which has led some observers to speculate that the President may have already worked on his safe exit option.

President Musharraf’s speech was a balanced and conciliatory one writes Aks of Five Rupees and adds that the President made “no mention of Lal Masjid, the Talibans, Baluchisan or Kashmir. Most strange of all was his aviodance of the term “Enlightened Moderation,” (he chose to employ his new catch-phrase “Pakistan First” instead).” And JZahir writes in AllVoices “The Pakistani public has been expressing satisfaction that Musharraf is willing to go quietly without plunging the country into further political turmoil.” While people in Pakistan are reportedly celebrating Musharraf’s resignation there are those who are wielding the might of their pen to record their disapproval of Musharraf’s farewell speech. “Musharraf’s final machiavellian act in his resignation speech was to paint a picture of his presidency as a period of prosperity, moderation and good governance – set against the dismal state of the nation today, which reflects the abuses of six months of civilian rule,” writes Kamila Shamsie in The Guardian. The Wall Street Journal writes that Musharraf’s speech was portrayed as a “selfless attempt to spare Pakistan a looming impeachment fight that would breed further instability.”

Musharraf came to power in 1999 and was seen as a leader who could finally bring some form of constitutional form of democracy to Pakistan. Instead towards the end of his tenure there was erosion of civil liberties in Pakistan and he ended up alienating a lot of people and to mention the deteriorating relationship with the tribal leaders of the Northwest frontier provinces. Last year was a difficult and turbulent one for Pakistan as this Reuters Timeline indicates. Musharraf suspended the constitution and imposed emergency and then there was the brutal murder of Benazir Bhutto.

After resignation what next for Musharraf? Times of India’s Chidanand Rajghatta writes US, UK, Turkey and Saudi Arabia remain as the top countries for Musharraf’s exile. Rajghatta adds, “Ironically, Musharraf’s safest option is probably Saudi Arabia, to where he exiled his current nemesis Nawaz Sharief.” On PBS News Hour Shuja Nawaz a former Pakistani journalist.mentioned that Dubai and New Mexico were two of the options open to Musharraf. But is America really an option? Not really according to some observers and commentators.

The US and British governments praised Musharraf for his work while India has refrained from making any public statement and simply said it is an internal matter of Pakistan. China’s Foreign Minister spokesperson said it was an internal matter but hoped the country can maintain its political and economic stability. Musharraf canceled his trip to attend the opening of the Beijing Olympics because of impeachment rumors.The government of Afghanistan thinks that the resignation of Musharraf will have a positive impact on their country according to a report in The International Herald Tribune.

Who after Musharraf? Could Asif Ali or Nawaz Sharif be the next President? There is no clear answer to that and only time will tell. Earlier this year Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party and Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League won the elections and formed a coalition government. Bhutto handpicked the current Prime Minister of Pakistan Yousuf Raza Gilani, who visited the US last month but left a poor impression on Washington. “Either leader – or a coalition of the two – must move quickly to restore the judiciary, civil service, and an economy in decline. Civilian rule over the military also must be strengthened,” according to a Christian Science Monitor editorial. It adds that “a lame-duck Bush administration must decide where to put its trust and money in Pakistan.”

“The coalition that emerged triumphant on the ashes of Mr. Musharraf’s administration on Monday in fact is a fragile one that could fall apart in the coming months,” notes Jane Perlez of The New York Times in an article that looks at the USA’s quest in Pakistan after Musharraf. Perlez writes Washington will “continue to concentrate its antiterrorism efforts on Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the army chief of staff, who succeeded Mr. Musharraf as military chief last November, said Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, a former minister of the interior whose parliamentary district borders the tribal region.”

What about Pakistan? “Post-Musharraf Pakistan will stumble on, its people trapped between the hammer of a military dictatorship and the anvil of political corruption,” writes Tariq Ali. While Ali writes that Pakistan may stumble along what happens to the mess that Musharraf leaves behind? “…the mess he has left behind is one that will haunt Pakistan and the world in the months ahead and make the international community even more nervous about the future of Pakistan as the militants become stronger and more audacious,” writes Ahmed Rashid in The Telegraph. Stumbling along is an option, but it could be that the country could plunge into deeper trouble and the rift between the Army and politicians may deepen further and create an unstable Pakistan? Or could this be “something of a success for Pakistan’s ravaged democracy: raising hopes that, sooner or later, the country may have a representative government able to bring the army to heel.’”writes The Economist. It is hard to tell if you go by the history of Pakistan and the central role that Pakistan’s military has played since the birth of the country. For more than half the time the country has had a military ruler.

Endnote about August: August is an interesting month in the history of Pakistan. Sixty two years ago on August 14, 1947 Pakistan was born. Twenty years ago it was on August 17,1988 that the then President Zia-Ul-Haq and Arnold Raphael, American Ambassador to Pakistan died in a plane crash. And once again Pakistan crosses another milestone in August with the resignation of President Musharraf, who ironically celebrated his birthday a few days. Both Zia ul-Haq and Parvez Musharraf were born in Delhi and migrated to Pakistan after partition.

Extra Reading:

Timeline of key events in Pakistan via PBS

Stephen Cohen has an excellent book titled The Pakistan Army.

Charlie’ Wilson’s War starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts traces US government’s involvement in the fight against the Russians in Afghanistan by helping the then Pakistan President Zia Ul-Haq. Interestingly, Om Puri plays the role of Zia in the movie. In 1979 Russia invaded Afghanistan that resulted in a long protracted war between the Russians and various Afghani forces collectively known as the Mujahideen. President Carter offered $325 million in military aid to General Zia who dismissed the offer as “peanuts” and held out for more that he eventually got from President Reagan’s administration.

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